我国货币政策的融资中介效应——基于实体经济运行风险的视角

Research on the Intermediary Effect of China’s Monetary Policy Financing Based on the Operational Risk of Real Economy

本文选择破产风险z值来代表实体经济运行的现实状况，并使用中国上市公司2007--2016年数据，基于实体经济运行风险视角对货币政策的主要影响进行了实证分析。结果表明：（1）紧缩型货币政策会降低实体经济运行风险；（2）融资渠道效应是传导货币政策影响的重要因素；（3）由于融资渠道存在显著非对称性，因而货币政策效应差异显著存在，对于小企业、非国有企业，货币政策一旦发生转变，企业融资中介效应将更加显著，融资渠道的重要性将会显著提高。因此，需要重视实体经济融资渠道在货币政策传导过程中的作用，有效识别融资渠道中介效应的非对称性。这将是新经济时期完善结构性货币政策，更好地为经济转型发展服务的一个重要方面。

In this paper, we choose the Z value to represent the operational risk of enterprises. The data of China＇s listed companies from 2007 to 2016 were used to explore the importance of financing channels in the operation risk of real economy. The empirical results show that： 1. tight monetary policy will reduce the operation risk of the real econo- my; 2. financing channels play an important role in affecting the process of transformation; 3, the financing channels have significant asymmetric effects of monetary policy for small enterprises and non state-owned enterprises. Once the monetary policy has been changed, the enterprise financing intermediary effect is more significant. Therefore, we should follow the importance of financing channels to conduct economic risk in the entity in the monetary policy and asymmetric effects effectively identify financing channels mediating effect. We should pay attention to material production industry economic. It will be a very important aspect to improve the structure of monetary policy in the new economic era.