特朗普执政前景分析

The Prospect of Trump Presidency

2017年1月20日，特朗普宣誓成为美国历史上第45任总统。一年来，他不拘一格的执政理念和施政风格给美国政治带来前所未有的冲击，对美国对外关系也带来了巨大影响。作为一个分裂型而非举国一致型的领导人，一个民意支持率只有40％左右、表态常出状况、深受“通俄门”困扰、执政经验稀缺且不善学习的总统，特朗普能否在执政第二年继续大力推进“特朗普主义”并在在国内政策和治理上继续有所建树，以至为2020年再次当选作好准备，亦或因中期选举严重失利或受“通俄门”调查冲击而提前成为“坡脚鸭总统”？换句话说，特朗普的执政前景到底如何？本文试图从特朗普执政后美国政治生态的主要变化，2018年他要面II盏的中期选举和“通俄门”调查冲击等重大政治挑战两个视角对上述问题进行分析。

On January 20, 2017, Donald Trump became the 45th president of the United States. His governing philosophy and style has greatly affected American politics and American foreign policy. On January 20, 2018, the Federal Government was shut down due to budgetary impasse. As a divisive leader with only 40% of approval who often speaking off the cuff, being deep in the ＂Russian collusion＂ controversy, lacking governing experience but showing little interest in learning, can Trump continue to push for his agenda and accomplish more on domestic policies to prepare for another presidential run in 2020？ Or will he suffer great setback in the 2018 mid-term election or be negatively affected by the ＂Russian collusion＂ investigation to become a ＂lamp duck＂ ahead of schedule？ This paper tries to answer this question by examining the major changes in American policy ecology and the challenges he will face in the coming mid-term election and possible impacts of the ＂Russian collusion＂ investigation.