人口预期寿命与退休年龄

Life Expectancy and Retirement Age

人口寿命的不断延长给中国养老事业带来越来越大的压力。文章在两期交叠世代模型的基础上引入退休,在市场完全竞争、充分就业和政府能够控制退休年龄的假设前提下,在个人、企业和政府的行为以及资本市场均衡的层面构建了一般均衡的模型框架,从社会计划者的角度发现福利最大化下的人口预期寿命变化和退休年龄是正相关的,并呈现出负反比例的函数形式。文章还基于参数估计和赋值模拟的方法,求解出了人口预期寿命与退休年龄的调整算法,并以此给出了两者间的调整对照表。根据计算的结果和预期的寿命,建议2030年前逐步将退休年龄延长至65岁。最后通过检验发现,如果不存在人口预期寿命和退休年龄之间的调整机制,在保持养老金收支平衡的前提下,预期寿命的延长将减少养老金的发放,并可能带来社会福利的损失。因此,在中国人口预期寿命不断延长的背景下,建议政府考虑建立人口预期寿命和退休年龄的调整机制。

The extension of life has exerted more and more pressure on the Chinese pension industry. In order to alleviate this pressure,more and more experts and scholars put forward policy recommendations for postponing retirement. At present,the specific reform scheme of the retirement age in China has not yet been introduced,and there are still some disputes on how to carry out the policy of postponing retirement.However,from the perspective of international experience,some countries or regions adjust retirement age directly or indirectly according to the life expectancy of population. This practice is important reference for our country. Whether China should build the adjustment mechanism of life expectancy and retirement age has very high research value. Under this background,this paper investigates the feasibility of establishing the linkage mechanism of life expectancy and retirement age from a perspective of a social planner through mathematical deduction and theoretical research,and further explores the adjustment formula between them. It hopes that this research can enrich and develop the application of overlapping generations model to the pension problem,and give relevant reference to government departments regarding the issue of postponing retirement. This paper,based on two-period overlapping generations model,introduces the retirement factors,and builds a general equilibrium framework in four aspects of individual behavior,enterprise behavior,government behavior and capital market equilibrium under the assumptions of completely competitive market,full employment and government control of the retirement age. With the optimality principle and the comparative static analysis,we find that when the economy is in a stable state,life expectancy with the maximum social welfare is positively related to the retirement age,manifesting a negative inverse proportion function form.Based on this functional relation,we use the parametric estimation method and assignment simulation to solve the adjustment formula of the life expectancy and retirement age of the population,and put forward an adjustment comparison table between them. According to the calculation results and prediction of life expectancy by China Issues National Plan on Population Development（between 2016 to 2030）,we recommend extending the retirement age to 65 years before 2030. In the end,by testing the model,on the premise of keeping the pension balance,we find that if there is no adjustment mechanism between the life expectancy and retirement age,sudden changes in life expectancy will reduce the pension payment,and can lead to the losses of social welfare.Therefore,based on the findings of this paper,and in the context of the extended life expectancy of Chinese population,we suggest that the governments should consider building the adjustment mechanism of life expectancy and retirement age,and increase the retirement age with the extension of life expectancy.