企业职工养老保险参数偏离及对统筹基金均衡缴费率的影响效应

The Parameters' Deviation of Basic Old-Age Insurance for Enterprise Employees and the Effect on Pooling Pension Contribution Rate

在对企业职工养老保险统筹基金均衡缴费率的主要决定参数进行理论分析的基础上,测算覆盖率、缴费人口比例和缴费系数这三个主要参数的偏离度和参数偏离对均衡缴费率偏离度的影响,以及参数偏离校正对均衡缴费率的边际效应及总效应。研究发现,参数偏离造成企业职工养老保险统筹基金均衡缴费率高于理论值49.7%,如果参数偏离得到完全校正,均衡缴费率低于现行20%的政策缴费率水平;研究同时发现,降低均衡缴费率总效应最大的参数是缴费系数,缴费系数完全回归理论值可以降低均衡缴费率4.038—4.891个百分点,具有最大边际影响效应的参数是制度老年抚养比,制度老年抚养比降低1个百分点可以降低均衡缴费率0.457—0.554个百分点。

Based on theoretical analysis on the determinative parameters of balanced contribution rate of pooling pension of basic old - age insurance for enterprise employees, this thesis calculate the deviation degree of three parameters, including coverage, contributor proportion and contribution coefficient, and calculate the impact on the deviation degree of balanced contribution rate. The results demonstrate that balanced contribution rate is 49.7% higher than theoretical level due to parameters＇ deviation, which would be lower than present policy contribution rate if parameters＇ deviation could be rectified. This thesis also find that the parameter with highest total effect on balanced contribution rate isdependence ration of insured people which could lower balanced contribution rate 4.038-4. 891 percentage points, and also find that the parameter with highest marginal effect is contribution coefficient which would lower balanced contribution rate 0.457 - 0. 544 percentage points by 1 percentage rectified.