信息科技领域发展态势及趋势分析

Study on the Development Situations and Trends of Information Technology

本文分析了全球信息科技领域近两年的发展态势,综合比较了重要的科技战略、规划与政策,回顾了重大科技前沿及突破性进展,梳理了信息科技中长期发展主要趋势和发展规律。分析表明,世界主要科技强国在近两年均加强了在人工智能、量子信息、网信安全、高性能计算、5G和大数据等方面的战略规划与部署。同时,人工智能在越来越多的专业方向已接近甚至超越人类水平;量子保密通信开始走向大规模应用,量子计算机研发已接近实现"量子霸权";高性能计算新型体系结构不断突破、能效显著提升,且呈现出与大数据、人工智能协同发展的态势;集成电路沿着继续缩小尺寸、集成多种功能、探索后摩尔时代新型器件与技术等三条路径往前发展;区块链技术日益获得金融、税收和政府管理事务部门的重视;边缘计算成为新兴技术理念,其业界影响力正快速提升;网络与信息安全问题爆发趋于大规模化。未来,信息科技将沿着多项趋势快速发展并重塑相关产业和人类社会,同时也需要克服能耗、安全、物理极限等若干挑战。

The development of information technology in the last two years is reviewed. Strategies, planning and policies are analyzed comparatively. Developing trends and patterns are summarized. As the stud- y indicates, all advanced countries in science and technology have strengthened their strategic planning and deployments in artificial intelligence, quantum information, cyber security, high performance computing,5th generation communication as well as big data. The performance of artificial intelligence could match or surpass human beings in increasing and more specific fields;while the quantum secure communication is heading towards large-scale application, the quantum computer is approaching ＂quantum supremacy＂ ; breakthroughs of novel architectures were accomplished in high performance computing （ HPC ）, HPC energy-efficiency was improved remarkably, and the synergy among HPC, big data and artificial intelligence emerges ; the integrated than moore, and beyond CMOS ; in circuit technology is advancing in three directions：more moore, more fields like finance, taxation, and government administration, blockchain is gaining momentum;large scale cyber security issues is bursting. In the future, information technology will evolve rapidly following various trends, and transform industries and human society. Meanwhile, challenges like energy consumption, security and physical limitation must be solved.