基于ARIMA模型的重庆市人口老龄化趋势预测

Predictionon Population Ageing Trend in Chongqing Based on ARIMAModel

进入二十一世纪后,重庆市人口老龄化问题日益显著,给区域社会保障体系带来了严峻挑战。鉴于此,采用2000~2015年重庆人口数据资料,基于ARIMA时间序列模型,在对重庆市老龄化现状深入剖析的基础上预测重庆市"十三五"期间人口老龄化的未来趋势。研究结果表明:重庆市人口老龄化问题已成为经济社会发展的瓶颈,重庆市未来五年的老年人口数及其占比均将呈现明显上升态势。最后,根据研究结论提出若干政策建议。

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the population ageing of Chongqing Municipality is increasingly serious,bringinggreat challenges to the social security system.This paper predicts the future ageing tendency of the populationin Chongqingduring13 th Five Year Plan on the basis of in-depth analysis ofpopulation data of 2000-2015 by the time series with autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model.The study yieldsthe following conclusions：population ageing problem has become the bottleneck of economic and social development in Chongqing.The number of elderly population and its proportion in the next five years will show an obvious upward trend in Chongqing.In the end,the paper puts forward some policy recommendations according to the research results.