全民基本医疗保险制度对我国医药产业的影响评价

Impact of Universal Basic Medical Insurance System on China's Pharmaceutical Industry

目的:评估我国全民基本医疗保险制度的建立对我国医药产业的影响程度。方法:基于2002—2014年我国医药产业的累计主营业务收入数据,运用间断时间序列分段回归方法,分析2008年我国全民基本医疗保险制度实施前后对我国医药产业影响的程度变化。结果:分段回归分析显示,2008年实施全民基本医疗保险制度前,我国医药产值发展趋势值为1.03×10~7千元/季度(P=0.000),实施全民基本医疗保险制度后,我国医药产值发展趋势值为2.75×10~7千元/季度(P=0.000),趋势变化增加了1.72×10~7千元/季度(P=0.000)。结论:全民基本医疗保险制度对我国医药产业的结构、企业药品的销量和销售成本产生影响。全民基本医疗保险制度对我国医药产业的发展有显著的促进作用。

Objective： To evaluate the impact of the establishing universal basic medical insurance system（UMIS） on pharmaceutical industry in China. Methods： Based on the accumulated main business income data of China＇s pharmaceutical industry from 2002 to 2014, the influence change of UMIS on China＇s pharmaceutical industry before and after 2008 was analyzed by the segmented regression model. Results： Segmented regression model showed that the slope rate of development trend of main business income of China＇s pharmaceutical industry was 1.03× 107 thousand yuan per quarter（P=0.000） before the implementation of UMIS in 2008.After the implementation of UMIS in 2008, the slope rate of development trend of main business income of China＇s pharmaceutical industry was 2.75×10^7 thousand yuan per quarter （P=0.000） and trend increased 1.72×107 thousand yuan per quarter（P=0.000）. Conclusion： The U M IS had impact on the structure, sales volume of pharmaceutical products and sale costs of China＇s pharmaceutical industry. U MIS had a signifieant effect on the increase of China＇s pharmaceutical industry.