新能源汽车新时代新征程:2017回顾及未来展望

New Energy Vehicle New Era and New Expedition:2017 Review and Future Outlooks

随着补贴退坡和双积分等重要政策接连出台,中国新能源汽车发展进入新时代。2017年,私人购买量大幅上升到41%,汽车动力电池行业集中度上升,三元电池装机占比显著增加到44%,车桩比有所下降。双积分政策在2017年正式出台,加上国家和地方补贴的进一步退坡,新能源汽车产业加速从政策驱动过渡为市场驱动阶段。但私人消费需求还有待进一步激发,电池等关键零部件的核心技术仍需突破,充电设施的建设与运营面临挑战。双积分和补贴退坡等重要政策实施后,中国汽车行业格局将发生深刻变化。从政策支持与行业发展来看,燃料电池汽车及电动汽车智能化融合发展将是今后重要的发展方向。

We point out that the development of the Chinese new energy vehicle（NEV） industry enters into a new era. In 2017,private purchase of NEVs reached 41%,a large increase in comparison with previous years. The market concentration in vehicle power battery industry continuously rose. The share of installed ternary batteries reached 44%,ranking the second place in all installed vehicle batteries. Every one charger needs to serve more than three EVs. The double credit-score policy was officially promulgated and subsidies are phased out at a higher rate. The Chinese NEV industry is experiencing transition from policy-oriented development to market-driven development. Challenges are obvious. The private market demand needs further stimulation; the battery and other core technologies of key components need breakthrough; and construction and operation of charging facilities need improved. The implementation of the double credit-score program and subsidies phase-out policies will fundamentally change the Chinese automotive industry. Fuel cell vehicles and smart cars are the important future direction.