云南省食源性疾病暴发事件流行特征及预测模型建立

Epidemiologic features of foodborne disease outbreaks in Yunnan Province and establishment of prediction model

目的探讨云南省2010—2015年食源性疾病暴发事件的发病规律和特点,为制定预防和控制措施提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法,对云南省食源性疾病暴发事件进行分析;采用季节趋势模型对云南省2016年每月食源性疾病暴发事件数进行预测。结果共报告食源性疾病暴发事件1 562起,发病16 802人,死亡285人。6—8月为发病高峰,报告起数占全年总数的63.7%;野生蕈中毒报告起数和死亡人数占总数的58.1%和59.3%;微生物性食物中毒发病人数,占总数的41.0%;发病场所以农村家庭的报告起数、发病人数和死亡人数最多,分别占总数的60.9%、42.0%和64.6%;学校食堂发生的食源性疾病波及人数最多,平均每起发病28人。采用季节趋势模型对云南省2016年食源性疾病暴发事件趋势进行预测,食源性疾病暴发事件继续呈上升趋势,中毒高峰为6—8月。结论应加强农村家宴和学校食堂的卫生监管,有针对性地开展预防野生蕈和微生物性食物中毒知识宣传教育。季节趋势模型对云南省学校食源性疾病暴发事件的拟合效果较好,可以应用于预测。

[Objective]To explore the regulation and features of the foodborne disease outbreaks in Yunnan Province from 2010-2015, provide the basis for developing the preventive and control measures. [Methods] Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the foodborne disease outbreaks in Yunnan Province. The seasonal trend model was used to predict the monthly outbreaks of foodborne diseases in Yunnan Province in 2016. [Results] Totally 1 562 foodborne disease outbreaks were reported,including 16 802 patients and 285 death cases. The peak season appeared June to August, which the outbreaks accounted for63.7% of the total outbreaks in whole year. The outbreaks and death cases caused by wild mushroom poisoning respectively accounted for 58.1% and 59.3% of the total, and the patients with microbial food poisoning accounted for 41.0%. The outbreaks,patients and death cases which happened in the rural families respectively accounted for 60.9%, 42.0% and 64.6% of the total.The case number of foodborne diseases in school canteens was the highest, with an average of 28 patients per outbreak. The seasonal trend model was used to predict the trend of foodborne diseases outbreaks in Yunnan Province in 2016, and the results showed that there was a rising trend, with the peak of June to August. [Conclusion] It is necessary to enhance the supervision and management of the rural family dinner and the school dining hall, carry out the targeted publicity and education of knowledge about prevention of wild mushroom and microbial food poisoning. The seasonal trend model has a good fitting effect on the outbreaks of foodborne diseases in Yunnan Province, and can be applied to the prediction.