中小机场货邮吞吐量的TEI@Ⅱ预测

Medium and Small Sized Airport Cargo Prediction with TEI @ⅡForecasting Method

鉴于中小机场货运的发展严重受制于供给保障能力,机场货邮吞吐量不再是航空货运总需求的固定比例。源于这一特性,中小机场货邮吞吐量与GDP、贸易等经济发展表征统计相关性较低,传统的预测方法失效。为更有效地预测中小机场货邮吞吐量,在TEI@Ⅰ预测方法的基础上,提出TEI@Ⅱ模型,并应用于无锡苏南硕放机场(军民合用)的货邮吞吐量的预测。该预测方法将机场货邮吞吐量发展变化看作是一定比例的航空货运需求、外界环境影响的周期性波动、受供给保障能力约束影响的三种变化的叠加,通过对无供给保障能力限制下的机场货邮吞吐量的回归预测,和分析影响机场货运供给保障能力的因素得出的有供给保障能力限制下的机场货邮吞吐量预测,及通过实际调研得到的经验数值的结果验证,最终确定综合预测结果。针对无锡机场的预测结果表明,TEI@Ⅱ模型相对于以往的多(单)元回归方法更有效,预测结果更符合实践发展预期,是一种应用于中小机场货邮吞吐量预测的有效方法,可以为决策提供重要支撑。

In view of the medium and small sized airport cargo development is seriously constrained by the ability of airport' s cargo supply capability,the airport cargo and mail throughput is no longer a fixed proportion of the total air cargo demand.Derived from this feature,the statistical correlation of cargo and mail throughput of medium and small sized airport,and GDP,trade and other economicdevelopment characterization is low,and the effectiveness of traditional forecasting methods is lower.In order to find a more effective method to predict the the medium and small sized airport' s cargo and mail throughput,based on the TEI @ I forecasting method,this paper proposed TEI @Ⅱmodel,and applied it to the prediction of Wuxi Sunan Shuo Fang airport' s cargo and mail throughput.The prediction method consier the airport cargo and mail throughput change as the superposition of three changes,a certain proportion of air cargo demand,impact of cyclical fluctuations of the external environment,capacity constraints impact of supply capability.By the regression prediction of airport cargo and mail throughput in the situation of supply capability constraints,the factor analysis of non- constraints, and the verification of actual development experience,the TEI @Ⅱmodel finaly get a comprehensive prediction results.The predictions result of Wuxi Airport showed that compared with the previous multi(single)regression method,the TEI@Ⅱmodel is more effective to predict the middle and small airport total cargo,and more closely to developing practice,can provide important support for decision-making.