水平衡下黄淮海平原区耕地可持续生产能力测算

Estimation of sustainable grain productivity for arable land under water balance in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

为缓解黄淮海平原区地下水水位的持续下降,国家提出耕地资源休养生息的战略,而实施耕地资源休养生息的关键,是确保水平衡下的耕地资源可持续生产能力。本文从可持续理论和水平衡的条件出发,将黄淮海划分成12个自然条件、社会经济条件相对均一的农业生态区,采用不同农业生态区代表实验站限水高产的产量和管理经验,以水定产并逐步修正,得到了黄淮海平原区耕地可持续生产能力,并与现实产量对比得到产量差。结果表明:(1)水平衡条件下黄淮海平原区耕地的可持续粮食生产能力为1.16亿t/年;(2)可持续总产产量差为-67.85万t/年,由于限水灌溉造成的粮食产能损失为小麦331.84万t/年,玉米不存在产能损失;(3)小麦主要压产地区为黑龙港地区、鲁西平原、豫东平原以及京津唐平原,而徐淮低平原、豫东平原以及胶西黄泛平原具有一定的提产潜力。通过测算,进一步认识了黄淮海平原区耕地可持续产能状况,为区域粮食生产的合理布局以及农业限水限产提供可靠依据。

China puts forward the national strategy of fallow plan so as to improve the sustainable grain production capacity of arable land and alleviate the continuous decline of the groundwater level in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Aiming at estimation of sustainable grain productivity for ensuring the implementation of this strategy, this paper learns management experience and experimental production from agricultural experiment station and adopts stepby-step correction method in twelve agricultural ecological zones, which are relatively uniform in social and economic conditions based on the sustainable theory and water balance. The results showed that：（1） The total sustainable grain production capacity of arable land under water balance in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain was 116 million t/year.（2） The yield gap of sustainable grain productivity was-0.67 million t/year, the wheat yield gap was-3.31 million t/year due to limited-water irrigation and the maize yield gap was positive.（3） The loss area of wheat production is mainly distributed in Heilonggang area, Luxi Plain, the Beijing-TianjinTangshan Plain and the eastern Henan Plain, and the potential area is mainly in Xuhuai Plain,the Northern Anhui Plain and Jiaoxi Yellow River Flood Plain. The research was valuable for understanding the sustainable productivity of cultivated land and implementing the reliable spatial pattern of agricultural production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.