基于土地集约利用的长株潭城市群建设用地供需仿真模拟

Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand based on land intensive use

土地集约利用反映了土地利用的综合状态,是协调土地供需平衡的重要指标。运用系统动力学(SD)构建城市建设用地供需反馈关系回路以及指标变量函数,在此基础上,建立长株潭城市群建设用地供需系统模型,仿真模拟低土地集约利用度、中等土地集约利用度、高土地集约利用度三种不同状态条件下,2016-2030年区域的建设用地、工业用地和居住用地供需变化趋势。结果表明:(1)研究区用地规模仍处于扩张状态,城市建设用地数量增长速度总体较快。但三种发展状态下用地增长规模、速度存有差异;(2)在低集约度模式下,建设用地规模及供地数量大,易造成土地资源的浪费;高集约度模式下,建设用地供给紧缩,用地规模增长缓慢,总规模偏小,不利于城镇化的良性发展;中等集约度模式则在用地规模和供给量上均与社会经济发展相适应,能体现现代城市发展理念;(3)工业用地占建设用地比例保持在15%~21%之间,其中低集约度模式下比例逐年上升,中等和高集约度模式下呈缓慢下降并趋于稳定之势;居住用地占建设用地的比例维持在27%~35%之间,其中低集约度和中等集约度模式用地占比呈下降趋势,高集约度模式比例总体维持在较高水平。研究通过对三种发展模式的设定,确定了不同指标在三种模式下的变化趋势,可为土地供需决策优化、城市建设规划及土地供给侧结构性改革提供科学参考。

Using the system dynamics（SD）, the feedback loop of urban construction land between supply and demand and function relationship between index variables are built up to simulate the change trends of the balance of land resources supply and demand in ChangshaZhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration from 2016 to 2030 in three scenarios, i.e., low intensity mode, medium intensity mode and high intensity mode based on the land resources supply and demand system dynamic model. The simulation suggested that：（1） the construction land scale is still in the expansion state, and the amount of urban construction land is increasing rapidly. However, there are differences in the scale and speed of land use under the three development modes.（2） Under the low intensity mode, the scale of construction land and the quantity of land supply are large, which is prone to the waste of land resources; under the high intensity mode, the supply of construction land is contracted, and the scale of land use is growing slowly and the total scale is small, which is not conducive to the healthy development of new-type urbanization; under the medium intensity mode, the scale of land use and the amount of supply can be adapted to the development of social economy, which can reflect the concept of modern city.（3） The proportion of industrial land to construction land maintains at15%-21%, in which the proportion under the low intensity mode increases year by year, and slows down and keeps stable under the proper intensity mode and high intensity mode; the proportion of residential land to construction land maintains at 27%-35%, in which the proportion under the low and the medium intensity modes slow down, and the proportion of the high intensity mode keeps at a high level.