新形势下产油国限产保价政策的特点与趋势分析

The characteristics and trend of production cuts to insure prices in oil-producing countries

面对来自美国页岩油等非常规能源的激烈竞争,2016年底欧佩克与俄罗斯等非欧佩克产油国达成联合减产协议。实施一年来,国际石油市场呈现稳中向好走势。本次欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国的联盟减产保价行动明显好于以往,呈现五个特点:产油国减产保价认识统一,协同配合力度大,产油大国沙特和俄罗斯发挥重要引领作用;建立减产监督机制,定时监测评估减产执行情况,监督减产任务落实;产油国密切观察市场供求变化,决议制订不僵化,产量政策谨慎调整;积极同美国石油企业与投机基金沟通协调,织起平衡供求、稳定油价的更大网络;欧佩克减产执行率创历史最高,救市推价成效显著。随着国际市场原油价格已普遍达到60美元/桶的目标价位,产油国的产量政策将面临调整,笔者预计产油国将本着谨慎原则,在不断监测市场变化、评估供求状况的情况下,适时适当调整产量政策。预判2018年国际油价将呈现稳中向好的态势。

Having faced fierce competition from unconventional resources like US shale oil, OPEC and such non-OPEC producers as Russia agreed to cut production at the end of 2016. Over the past year, the international oil market has shown a steady and positive trend. The effects are significantly better than that of the past with five features： oil-producing countries had agreed to cooperate with each other and especially Saudi Arabia and Russia played an important leading role; a supervision mechanism for reducing production had been established and the implementation of reduction performance had been monitored and evaluated; oil- producing countries closely watched market supply and demand changes and the policy was not rigid and carefully adjusted; actively communicated and coordinated with US oil companies ＆ speculative funds and weaved a larger network to balance supply and demand and stabilize oil prices; OPEC＇s production cuts was carried out very well and the price of the bailout had been remarkable. As the international market price of crude oil has reached a targeted price of $60 a barrel and oil producing countries will face the adjustment of production policy. But it is expected that big oil producers will adjust production policy with the principle of caution, and constantly monitor the market changes and evaluate the condition of supply and demand. In 2018, the international oil price will continue to show a good momentum.