区域矿产资源可供性评价及风险分析——以河北省铁矿资源为例

Availability and Risk Analysis of Regional Mineral Resources: A Case Study of Iron Ore Resources in Hebei Province

矿产资源可供性分析是一个包含矿床地质特征和社会经济要素双重属性的综合评价过程。在探明资源储量和开发利用技术条件确定的情况下,区域矿产资源的可供性与否,主要取决于矿产品的市场价格水平。本文依据河北省铁矿资源13个矿区的资源特征及开发利用条件,开展了确定价格状态和不同价格情景下地区铁矿资源可供性评价,并结合一定时期内铁矿资源矿产品市场价格波动变化的价格序列分布,对地区铁矿资源可供性进行了风险分析。研究结果表明:(1)河北省铁矿资源可供性程度受矿产品市场价格影响作用明显,区域内不同价格背景下资源可供性程度差异性较大;(2)地区铁矿资源可供规模主要集中在900~950万吨/年,但可供性保证程度只有60%左右,标志着地区铁矿资源可供性存在着较大的风险性;(3)建立资源可供性评价预警系统、加快资源开采加工企业技术进步、加强后备基地的资源勘查和储备、构建完善的外部资源供应体系,是不断提升地区资源可供性的重要途径。

Availability analysis of mineral resources is a comprehensive evaluation including the dual attributes of geological features and social eco- nomic factors.Under conditions of given proven reserves and given technical condition of development and untilization, whether the regional mineral re- sources are available or not mainly depends on the prices of mineral products in the market. On the basis of resource characteristics and the conditions for the development of 13 mining areas of iron ores in Hebei Province, the availability evaluation is carried out in light of situations of determining prices and different price scenarios. Combined with a period of price change of iron ore resources, the availability risk of the resources is analyzed. The results show that in Hebei Province the availability of iron ore resources is affected obviously by the prices of the mineral product market, which differs much in the backgrounds of different prices. The available scales are concentrated in 9.0 - 9.5 million tons per year, while the guaranteed availability is only about 60% of them, implying a major existing risk. It is necessary to establish resource availability evaluation and warning systems, accelerate the technical pro- gress of resources development ＆ utilization enterprises, strengthen exploration and reserves in candidate bases, and construct perfect external resources supply systems.