基于预测有效度的IOWA算子模糊组合预测方法

Fuzzy Combination Prediction Method of IOWA Operator Based on Forecasting Effective Measure

传统的组合预测方法大部分都是针对数字型数据进行的,但在实际生活中,预测对象具有模糊性,常用三角模糊数表征其特征信息;提出了基于模糊信息的一阶预测有效度的概念,并将其作为精度指标,运用诱导有序加权平均(IOWA)算子对三角模糊数信息进行集成,建立了相应的组合预测模型,实例分析表明基于一阶预测有效度的IOWA算子模糊组合预测模型是可行和有效的。

Traditional combined forecasting methods are mostly for numeric data,but in actual life,the prediction problems are ambiguous,which are usually described by triangular fuzzy number. The conception of first-order forecasting effective measure based on fuzzy information is proposed,which is used as prediction precision index, and fuzzy combination forecasting model is established by using induced ordered weighted averaging（ IOWA） operator to aggregate triangular fuzzy numbers. An example analysis shows that fuzzy combination forecasting model of IOWA operator based on first-order forecasting effective measure is feasible and effective.