要素约束、市场风险与中间品短缺

Factor Constraint,Market Risk and Shortage of Intermediate Goods——Take the Modern Mulberry Sericulture in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces as An Example

中间品短缺是制约近代中国工业发展的重要原因之一。本文以近代江浙地区桑蚕业发展为例,分析缫丝工业所需原料——蚕茧生产不足的深层次原因。研究表明,19世纪60年代以后,虽然桑蚕业在江浙地区有了一定程度的发展,并在很大程度上冲击了传统的耕织经济,但是这些变化并没有从根本上改变耕织经济的基础地位。资金短绌和土地制度抑制了农民对桑蚕业的生产投入,同时较大的价格波动增加了从业者的市场风险,上述因素共同抑制了近代江浙地区桑蚕业的发展,致使缫丝工业发展所需蚕茧供给不足,进而制约了近代中国缫丝工业的发展。

The shortage of intermediate goods was one of the main factors that restrict the development of modern China's industry. This paper considers the development of silk industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces,analyses underlying reasons of inefficiency of cocoon production. We find that planting mulberry and silkworm rearing have once become one of main businesses of farmers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provincesafter 1860 s,which greatly impacts the original ploughing and weaving economy. However, this change had not fundamentally changed the basic position of the ploughing economy. Lack of capital and land system retrained peasants to invest in mulberry and sericulture. In addition, the fluctuation of price increased the business risk of planting mulberry and silkworm rearing. The above factors jointly inhibited the development of mulberry planting and silkworm rearing silkworm in modern Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, which, in turn, resulted in the shortage of cocoon which was needed for the development of silk reeling industry,and thus restricted the development of silk reeling industry.