基于MaxEnt模型的川续断气候适宜性分析

Study of Climatic Suitability for Dipsacus asper Based on MaxEnt Model

查询相关文献、国家数字植物标本馆和全球生物多样性信息数据库,收集川续断在全国的采样信息,以温度、降雨和海拔为指标,采用MaxEnt模型软件对川续断在全国的气候适宜性进行分析.研究结果表明,MaxEnt预测模型有效性高.影响川续断适宜性分布的主要气候因子为最暖季降水量、海拔、温度季节性变化的标准差、季节降水量变异系数、年均温范围和最干季平均温,适宜的取值区间分别为最暖季降水量为500~900mm,海拔为1 800~4 300m,温度季节性变化的标准差为40~75,季节降水量变异系数为65~105,年均温范围为21℃~30℃,最干季平均温度为-1℃~9℃.全国可划分为4个气候适宜等级,依照p<0.25为气候不适宜区;0.25≤p<0.48为气候较适宜区;0.48≤p<0.78为气候适宜区;p≥0.78为气候最适宜区的划分标准,川续断适宜生长区域主要集中在西南地区,包括云南、西藏、四川、贵州、重庆等省市.

The distribution information of Dipsacus asper was collected with the help of literature inquiry,Chinese Virture Herbarium（CVH）and global biodiversity information facility.The climatic suitability for D.asper in China was investigated by the MaxEnt（Maximum Entropy）modeling framework based on the distribution information and data of climate factors obtained,including temperature,rainfall and altitude.The prediction model constructed by MaxEnt was shown to be highly reliable.The dominant climate factors included precipitation of the warmest quarter,altitude,the standard deviation of temperature seasonality,coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality,temperature annual range,and mean temperature of the driest quarter,their proper range being 500-900 mm,1 800-4 300 m,40-75,65-105,21 ℃-30 ℃ and-1 ℃-9 ℃,respectively.Furthermore,four suitability classes of distribution for D.asper were identified based on existence probability（p）：p0.25（unsuitable area）,0.25≤p〈0.48（less suitable area）,0.48≤p〈0.78（appropriate area）and p≥0.78（optimum area）.The optimum areas were found to be mainly concentrated in the southwest region of the country,including Yunnan,Tibet,Sichuan,Guizhou,Hubei and Chongqing.