中国能源强度变化动因——基于生产与生活视角

The Impetuses to the Changes of China's Energy Intensity:From the Perspective of Production and Life

通过推导并构建包含生产与生活和空间效应的因素分解模型,利用1980—2015年全国及省际面板数据,量化分析了技术水平、产业结构、生活用能强度和地区经济规模变动对中国能源强度的影响。结果表明,除生产部门的技术进步之外,生活用能强度降低是持续引领中国能源强度下降的又一个重要因素;产业结构调整在1985年以后产生了负面影响;地区经济规模变动在2005年之后产生了消极影响。从省际层面看,存在的问题有:新疆的技术水平倒退,内蒙古和海南的生活用能强度上升,多数省市产业结构和经济规模的变动影响消极等。因此,降低中国的能源强度,除了依赖于技术进步和优化产业结构外,还需提高生活部门的用能效率,促进区域经济和能源利用的协调发展。

Through inferring and constructing a factor decomposition model including the production and life sectors and the spatial effect, this paper makes use of the national and provincial panel data from 1980 to 2015 to conduct a quantitative analysis of the impact of technological level, industrial structures, household energy consumption intensity and changes of regional economical scales on China＇s energy intensity. The findings show that besides the technological progress of the production sector, the decline in household energy consumption intensity is another driving factor for the decline in China＇s energy intensity. The adjustments of the industrial structures have produced a negative effect since 1985. Seeing from the provincial level, there exist such problems as the retrogress of technological level in Xinjiang, the increased intensity of household energy consumption in Inner Mongolia and Hainan, the negative impacts due to the changes in industrial structures and economic scales in most provinces and cities, and so on. Therefore, in order to reduce China＇s energy intensity, it is necessary not only to rely on technological advancement and industrial structure optimization, but also to improve the energy efficiency for household consumption and to promote the harmonious development of regional economy and energy utilization.