上海市大气污染对感冒疾病相对危险度的影响

Effect of Air Pollution on the Cold Disease in Shanghai

探讨上海市主要大气污染PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、NO_2和O_3的日平均浓度变化以及上海市大气污染对感冒疾病的影响.本文汇总了2008年1月1日~2010年12月31日上海市大气污染、气象要素,以及感冒日就诊人数数据,采用时间序列的Possion半参数广义相加模型,通过平滑样条函数控制长期趋势、"星期几效应"及气象因素等混杂因素的影响,分析上海市大气污染物与居民健康的暴露-反应关系,并按年龄进行分层分析,定量评估上海市大气污染对感冒日就诊人数的影响及滞后效应.结果表明,上海市大气污染物PM_(10)、NO_2、O_3、PM_(2.5)浓度每增加一个IQR,感冒疾病发生的相对危险度为1.024 0(1.023 3~1.024 6)、1.020 6(1.020 1~1.021 2)、0.939 3(0.938 4~0.940 2)、1.008 0(1.006 9~1.008 6),大气污染物PM_(10)、NO_2、O_3、PM_(2.5)浓度每增加10μg·m^(-3),感冒日就诊人数分别增加0.5%、1.0%、-2.0%、0.2%.在多污染模型中,在引入其他污染物后,NO_2和PM_(2.5)的结果较单污染模型是基本减小的,PM_(10)和O_3的结果是基本增大的.上海市大气污染对感冒疾病的发生有影响.

This study discusses the changes in the daily average concentrations of the main air pollutants,such as PM10,PM（2.5）,O3,and NO2,in Shanghai,and the effects of air pollution on cold in Shanghai. For this study,data on air pollutants,meteorological factors,and the number of daily hospital visits from cold in Shanghai were collected from January 1,2008 to December 31,2010.Using the time series Poisson semi-parametric generalized additive model,and controlling for the long-term trend,＂week＂effect,and meteorological factors by smoothing the spline function,the exposure-response relationship between air pollution and human health in Shanghai was analyzed. The study sets up the model according to age,evaluating the impact and the lag effect of air pollution on the number of daily hospital visits. Results show that when PM10,NO2,O3,and PM（2.5） increase by an IQR,the relative risk of cold disease is 1. 024 0（ 1. 023 3-1. 024 6）,1. 020 6（ 1. 020 1-1. 021 2）,0. 939 3（ 0. 938 4-0. 940 2）, and 1. 008 0（ 1. 006 9-1. 008 6）,and when PM10,NO2,O3,and PM（2.5） increase by 10 μg·m^-3,the daily hospital visits increase by 0. 5%,1. 0%,-2. 0%,and 0. 2%. In the multi-polluted model,the results of NO2 and PM（2.5） are basically lower compared to the results of the single-pollutant model,the results of PM10 and O3 are higher. Air pollution in Shanghai has an impact on the incidence of cold disease.