黑龙江省经济发展对用电需求影响分析

Influence of Economic Development in Heilongjiang Province on Power Demand

经济发展与用电需求密切相关。根据2000-2016年黑龙江省经济发展数据,＂十五＂、＂十一五＂期间全省经济保持较快发展;但自2014年起,全省经济增速明显放缓,＂十二五＂期间全省年均增速回落至8.3%。全省三产比重由2000年的12.2∶55.0∶32.8调整为2016年的17.4∶28.9∶53.7,第一产业和第三产业发展较快,但第二产业的过快下滑对全省经济下行产生了较大影响。＂十二五＂以来,全省社会固定资产投资增速、全社会消费品零售总额增速、出口增速均呈下降态势,其中投资力度减弱及出口能力的大幅下降是全省经济下行的主要原因。全省全社会用电量增长波动情况较GDP更为明显,但变化趋势基本一致,＂十五＂、＂十一五＂期间年均增速分别为4.68%和6.11%,均保持较快增长;＂十二五＂期间年均增速3.83%,随GDP增速的放缓而下降。第一产业、第三产业和居民生活用电量均保持较稳定的发展态势,但第二产业用电量增速在＂十二五＂后期明显下滑,2015年出现负增长。为有效刺激经济增长对用电量的拉动作用,建议应进一步优化全省产业结构,巩固壮大传统优势产业,助推传统产业升级改造,加强传统优势产业链向下延伸,并大力发展新产业,重点推动战略性新兴产业和现代服务业。

Economic development is closely related to power demand.According to the economic development data of Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2016,the economy of the province maintained fast growth during the ＂10^th Five-Year Plan＂ and the ＂11^th Five-Year Plan＂ periods,but its growth has slowed down sharply since2014.During the ＂12^th Five-Year Plan＂ period,the average annual growth rate of the province fell to 8.3%.The proportions of the primary industry,the secondary industry and the tertiary industry in the GDP of the province were adjusted from 12.2 ∶55.0∶32.8 in 2000 to 17.4 ∶28.9∶53.7 in 2016.The primary industry and the tertiary industry developed rapidly,but the rapid decline of the secondary industry had a great impact on the economic downturn of the province.Since the ＂12^th Five-Year Plan＂ period,the growth of investment in fixed assets,the growth of retail sales of consumer goods,and the export growth of the province have declined.Among them,the weakened investment strength and the sharp decline in export capacity are the main reasons for the economic downturn.The electricity consumption growth of the province fluctuated much more obviously than GDP,but showing a similar trend.The average annual growth rates during the ＂10^th Five-Year Plan＂ and the ＂11^th Five-Year Plan＂ periods were 4.68% and 6.11% respectively,maintaining rapid growth.During the ＂12^th Five-Year Plan ＂ period, the average annual growth rate was 3. 83 %, falling with the slowdown in GDP growth.The electricity consumption of the primary industry,the tertiary industry and the residents maintained steady development,but the electricity consumption growth of the secondary industry declined sharply at the later stage of the ＂12^th Five-Year Plan＂ period and registered a negative growth in 2015.In order to effec-tively stimulate the role of economic growth as a driver of electricity consumption,this paper recommends that Heilongjiang Province should further optimize its industrial structure,consolidate and strengthen the traditionally competitive industries,promote the upgrading of traditional industries,strengthen the downward extension of traditionally competitive industrial chain,vigorously develop new industries,and focus on promoting the development of emerging industries of strategic importance and modern service industry.