全球集合预报系统综述

An Overview of Global Ensemble Forecasting System(GEFS)

主要介绍集合预报系统的发展,以及目前业务预报中所能获取的主要全球集合模式的系统配置,包括中国T639集合预报模式、ECMWF(欧洲中期天气预报中心)集合预报模式、美国NCEP(国家环境预报中心)和加拿大CMC(加拿大气象中心)集合预报模式。不同用户在根据集合预报结果进行决策时,往往比单一预报得到更多的信息,可以帮助预报员和公众作出更好的决策。

This paper mainly introduces the development of the ensemble forecasting system and the system configuration of the main global ensemble models that can be obtained in the operational forecasting at present. These models include China＇s T639 ensem-ble forecast model, ECMWF （European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecast） ensemble forecast model, NCEP （National Environ-mental Forecasting Center） and CMC （Canadian Meteorological Center）. Different users tend to get more information than a single fore-cast when making decisions based on the ensemble forecast results, which can help forecasters and the public to make better decisions.