我国用水总量确定的方法与结果

Method for determining total water consumption in China and discussion about its results

根据1980—2015年中国用水总量与主要影响因素的系列数据,建立经过统计检验的中国用水总量预测模型,对中国用水总量极值及出现的时间进行预测。为了验证模型预测结果的正确性,提出利用中国人均综合用水量预测中国用水总量极值的方法,在对比国外近几十年人均综合用水量的趋势及中国人均综合用水量特性的基础上,预测了未来中国人均综合用水量的趋势。再根据中国人口峰值及出现的时间,预测出在2030年前后中国用水总量极值达6 500亿m3,之后与中国总人口一起下降,这个结果与模型预测的结果一致,说明该确定中国用水总量极值的模型、方法与结果是合理的,可在其他区域(省、市、区等)借鉴与使用。

Based on the series of data of China's total water consumption and its major influencing factors from 1980 to 2015,a model for predicting the total water consumption is established through the statistical tests,and it is subsequently used to predict the extreme value and the relevant occurrence year in China.In order to verify the validity of the predicted results by the model,a method is put forward to predict the extreme value of the total water consumption in China using China's per capita comprehensive water consumption.On the basis of both the trend analysis of per capita comprehensive water consumption in typical foreign countries in recent decades and the characteristics of per capita comprehensive water consumption in China,the trend of comprehensive water consumption per capita in China is predicted.Then in the light of the peak population in China and its corresponding year,the calculated total water consumption in China is up to 650 billion m3in the year about 2030,and it will decrease with the total population in China.The calculated results are consistent with the predicted ones by the proposed prediction model,which shows that the model for predicting the extreme value of the total water consumption in China,the relevant method as well the results are reasonable,and they can be used in other regions(provinces,cities and districts).