基于ARIMA模型的二手房价格预测

Price Prediction of Second-hand House Based on ARIMA Model

近年来,我国一二线城市房价持续上涨,房屋成了人们日常生活讨论的热门话题,大家纷纷对未来的房价走势做出猜测。本文爬取国内某知名大型房产网站自2013年以来广州和深圳的二手房均价数据,采用ARIMA模型对未来的房价进行滚动预测,并使用RMSE对预测精度进行判断。结果表明,该模型可以对二手房均价进行持续预测,且预测精度较高,可为房屋买卖者提供参考。

In recent years,house prices in China's first-tier and second-tier cities have continued to rise,and houses have become a hot topic of discussion in daily life,we have to guess the future trend of housing prices. In this paper,we take up the average price of second-hand housing in Guangzhou and Shenzhen since 2013 from a domestic well-known large-scale real estate websites,use the ARIMA model to rollingly forecast the future housing price,and use RMSE to judge the prediction accuracy.The results show that the model can predict the average price of second-hand house continuously,and the prediction accuracy is higher,which can be used as reference for housing traders.