复杂网络背景下国际铁矿石贸易规律研究

The international iron ore trade law under the ackground of complex network

本文选取2001~2016年联合国商品贸易数据库中的铁矿石贸易数据作为研究样本,运用复杂网络的理论,构建了铁矿石国际贸易复杂网络,运用复杂网络的节点强度、中间中心度和模块度等参数分析了铁矿石国际贸易网络中的贸易影响力、贸易重要性、贸易团体等特征和规律。结果显示:中国和澳大利亚为贸易龙头国家,贸易主导国家有巴西、日本、印度和韩国;中国铁矿石进口贸易伙伴关系逐年收紧,并且未来中国的铁矿石进口量将呈现稳中有降的态势;主要铁矿石供给国受金融危机的影响较小;以铁矿石为主要原料的钢铁工业呈现由欧美发达国家向亚洲发展中国家转移的趋势;美国、德国、法国、英国等欧美传统工业强国控制的贸易信息和能够影响的贸易流量较大;国际铁矿石贸易网络的贸易团体数量基本保持稳中有降,但是贸易额会随着经济周期的变化而变化。

This paper uses the iron ore trade data of UN Comtrade database from 2001 to 2016 as a research sample and uses the theory of complex networks to construct a complex network of international trade of iron ore. By using the complex network＇s node strength, center degree and modularity And other parameters of the iron ore international trade network analysis of trade influence, the importance of trade, trade groups and other characteristics and laws. The results show that China and Australia are leading trade countries and Brazil,Japan,India and South Korea are trade-dominated countries;China＇s iron ore import and trade partnership has been tightened year by year,and China＇s iron ore imports will show a steadily declining trend in the future. The major iron ore suppliers were less affected by the financial crisis;the iron and steel industry with iron ore as the main raw material showed a shift from the developed countries in Europe and the United States to the developing countries in Asia; the traditional industrial powers such as the United States,Germany,France and the United Kingdom controlled lots of trade information and trade flows~ the number of trade groups on the international iron ore trade network has been steadily declining, but the volume of trade has changed with the changing economic cycle.