中国天然气发展态势及战略预判

Natural gas in China: Development trend and strategic forecast

北美非常规天然气产量的增长改变了全球供给格局,使天然气供应总体宽松,贸易中心东移。在分析国内外能源发展态势的基础上,结合世界天然气大市场发展态势分析了中国天然气发展的大形势,多方位、多角度研判了中国天然气的发展状况:(1)天然气需求增长强劲,2050年需求量将达到6 500×10~8~7 000×10~8 m^3;(2)2030年天然气产量可能的高、中、低3种峰值情景分别为1 800×10~8 m^3、2 000×10~8 m^3、2 200×10~8 m^3;(3)陆上管道气极限供给能力在1 600×10~8 m^3左右;(4)LNG将成为填补天然气需求量缺口的主要途径;(5)在国产气、管道气峰值基本明确的前提下,未来LNG、储气库气将在我国整个天然气工业产业链中发挥极其重要的作用。进而从中国的基本国情出发,提出了对未来天然气发展战略的初步思考:(1)提速国内油气生产能力、管道输送能力、LNG与储油气库能力等"三个能力"建设;(2)在人工智能和大数据的基础上分析油气供给和消费特征,建立中国油气"安全消费峰值"预警体系;(3)从我国"富煤、贫油、少气"的能源资源国情出发,急速推进煤炭清洁化工业技术和新能源主体工业技术的提前突破;(4)把握国内外能源发展形势,全方位战略布局国家能源安全格局,加快煤炭、油气和新能源"三足鼎立"新时代的到来。

Based upon an analysis of global energy developing trend, a discussion was made on the natural gas developing trend in China with the following pre-estimating results from multiple perspectives. （1） Natural gas will be strongly demanded and in 2050 it will be up to 650-700 billion cubic meters （bcm）. （2） The high-medium-low peaking scenarios of natural gas production rate in 2030 will be 180 bcm, 200 bcm and 220 bcm, respectively. （3） Up till now, the supply capacity of inland pipeline gas will be about 160 bcm. （4） LNG will be the main approach to filling the gap in the natural gas demand. （5） When the peak value of domestic production and pipeline gas is definite, LNG and storage gas will play an important role in the whole natural gas industrial chain in the future. Also, according to the basic condition of China, the strategies for future natural gas development were presented as follows： to enhance the capabilities of domestic gas productivity, pipeline transportation, gas storage （such as LNG terminals, UGS, etc.）; to set up an early warning system for oil ＆ gas peak security consumption with detailed supply and demand information based upon AI technology and big data analysis; to make breakthroughs in coal cleaning and new energy production technologies for lack of non-renewable oil and gas resources; and to get a better understanding of global energy developing trend and have an omni-direction strategic layout for national energy security thus to quicken the pace of a new tripartite confrontation era of coal, petroleum and new energy sources.