中国天然气市场可持续发展分析

Analysis of sustainable development of natural gas market in China

承接2016年回暖之势,2017年中国天然气市场迎来爆发式增长,全年天然气消费量达2 335×10~8 m^3、年消费增量达353×10~8 m^3。为此,有必要剖析推动中国天然气市场爆发式增长的主要因素并预测其未来发展的可持续性。研究结果表明:(1)2017年爆发式增长主要受益于宏观经济形势好转、大气污染防治措施深入实施、化工等大宗产品价格回升、华东地区天然气发电负荷增加、管道天然气供应价格相对较低、LNG汽车市场整体呈现回暖态势等因素;(2)经济发展形势、"煤改气"的推进、政策实施方向、油气价格趋势等外部因素将能继续支持天然气市场的快速增长;(3)但天然气产业的自身条件、资源和基础设施条件将对市场发展造成制约。结论认为:(1)2020年之前我国天然气市场需求量仍会保持快速增长的趋势,但难以维持每年300×10~8 m^3的增长规模;(2)工业燃料和发电是天然气市场发展的主要方向;(3)环渤海等地区是未来天然气需求量增长的主要区域。为了保持我国天然气市场的发展态势,提出如下建议:(1)千方百计扩大天然气供应规模,在认真做好国产非常规天然气资源开发的同时,积极落实进口天然气资源;(2)毫不松懈地建设基础设施,管道要超前建设,LNG接收站要加大力度建设,地下储气库等调峰设施要鼓励建设;(3)科学合理地理顺天然气价格,居民价格与非居民价格并轨首当其冲,确立价格是平衡供需关系的杠杆作用,减少行政干涉。

Followed by the revival in 2016, an explosive growth appeared in the 2017 natural gas market in China, with an annual consumption being up to 233.5 billion cubic meters （bcm） and annual increment being up to 35.3 bcm. In view of this, it is necessary to analyze the main reasons for that and predict its sustainability in the future, This study demonstrates that （1） such an explosive growth in 2017 mainly benefits from many aspects like the improved macroeconomic situation, deep implementation of air pollution prevention and control measures, price rising of bulk commodities such as petrochemical products, increasing load on natural gas-fueled power generation in East China, rather low prices of pipeline gas, and so on; and （2） natural gas market will be rapidly developed due to the support from the present economic developing trend, the coal-to-gas promotion, orientation of policies implementation, oil and gas prices potential, and so on, but on the other hand, it will be restricted by limited resources, incomplete infrastructure conditions, etc. It is concluded that （1） natural gas demand potential before 2020 will be kept rising but its annual increment will be difficult to remain at 30 bern; （2） industrial fuels and gas-fueled power generation will be the future target for natural gas market development, and （3） the Circum-Bohai Sea Regions will be the key zone for the natural gas demand soaring potential. To maintain such a satisfying developing trend, we put forward the following proposals： to expand natural gas supply and exploit more substantial natural gas resources home and abroad; to improve infrastructure construction and to plan, design and construct more pipeline networks, LNG stations, peak-shaving facilities such as underground gas storages all over China; and to make natural gas prices more reasonable and fair with the co-existence of residents and non-residents pricing mechanism, ensuring that the price plays a role of leverage between supply and demand without any administrative interferences.