热钱的涌入对我国进口贸易的影响

The Influx of Hot Money Has an Impact on China's Import Trade

自2005年人民币汇率改革以来,我国成为资本流入的主要国家,流入我国的国际资本不断增加,热钱也因此受到了广泛关注。采用2006—2016年我国调整后的外汇储备增加额、贸易进口额、出口额、外商直接投资额(FDI)、平均汇率、工业增加值等数据,对热钱对进口贸易的影响进行了实证分析,回归分析结果表明:热钱对我国进口贸易有显著性的影响并且两者呈现负相关的趋势,即流入我国的热钱数量越多,进口额越低;流入我国的热钱数量越少,进口额越高。

Although some economists are very concerned about the inflow of hot money, the research on the impact of hot money inflow on China＇s trade imports is scarce. The data used in this paper from 2006 to 2016 found by the SAFE, BOC and MOFCOM include adjusted foreign exchange reserves increase, China＇s trade imports, exports, foreign direct investment （ FDI）, average exchange rate, industrial increase value and so on, and hot money on the import trade conducted in - depth study. Regression analysis shows that： hot money has a significant impact on China＇s import trade and the two have a negative correlation trend. In other words, the more hot money flows into China, the smaller the imports. The smaller the amount of hot money flowing into China, the greater the trade imports.