理财业务发展对商业银行收益及风险的影响研究--基于15家A股上市银行的实证分析

Wealth Management Business and the Income and Risk of Commercial Banks:An Empirical Study based on 15 Listed Banks in China

近年来,我国商业银行理财业务快速发展,在产生收益的过程中也积聚了一定风险,引起监管部门和社会的高度关注。本文基于15家A股上市银行2011-2016年的面板数据,深入剖析了理财业务发展对我国商业银行收益及风险的影响。实证结果表明:发展理财业务对提高商业银行整体资产收益率有积极推动作用,但影响并不显著,传统贷款业务仍是决定银行收益水平的主要因素;理财业务和贷款业务过快增长都会导致银行的风险积聚,单一发展传统信贷业务并非商业银行的最优选择;中小银行理财业务对提高资产收益率的促进作用小于大型商业银行,而对增加破产风险的不利影响则要大于大型商业银行,说明大型商业银行对理财业务的成本收入控制、风险管控水平总体要高于中小银行。基于以上分析,本文最后就商业银行的理财业务提出了回归"代客"本质、注重风险管控、加强外部监管引导和规范等政策建议。

In recent years, the wealth management business of commercial banks in China has developed rapidly. This paper analyzes the impacts of the wealth management business on the income and risk of commercial banks based on the panel data of 14 listed banks between 2011-2016.The results show that the wealth management business has a positive but not significant effect on the improvement of banks＇ ROA. The traditional loan business is still the dominating factor affecting the ROA of banks. Both wealth management and loan business would increase the risk of banks, but the majority of it comes from loan business, therefore, it is not optimal for commercial banks to depend solely on loan business. The impacts of wealth management on ROA are larger to small and medium banks than to large banks, and its impacts on risk are larger to small and medium banks too. This implies that large banks are more effective in managing cost and income, controlling risk for wealth management than small and medium banks. Finally, this paper proposes suggestions to commercial banks on wealth management including returning the nature of wealth management, controlling risk, strengthening external supervision, guidance and policy normalizations.