中国与新亚欧大陆桥沿线七国贸易互补性测度及影响因素研究

An Empirical Study on the Determinants of Trade Complementarity between China and Seven Countries along the New Eurasian Continental Bridge

利用2002-2016年货物贸易数据测算了中国与新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊沿线七国的贸易互补性,并使用主成分分析法和广义矩估计方法,对中国出口与七国进口贸易互补性的影响因素做了实证研究。结果表明:资本要素禀赋和经济金融环境对中国与新亚欧大陆桥沿线七国初级产品、资本或技术密集型产品的贸易互补性有显著影响;FDI净流入与中国与新亚欧大陆桥沿线七国资本或技术密集型产品的贸易互补性正相关;基础设施水平对中国与新亚欧大陆桥沿线七国初级产品和劳动密集型产品的贸易互补性有显著影响;创新与研发水平对中国与新亚欧大陆桥沿线七国劳动密集型产品、资本或技术密集型产品的贸易互补性有显著影响。

Based on the data from 2012 to 2016,this paper calculated the trade complementarity index between China and seven major countries along the new Eurasian Continental Bridge,and that influencing factors by using the method of Principal Component Analysis and Generalized Method of Moments. It is found that capital endowment and economy and finance environment have significant impact on the trade complementarity of primary and capitalintensive products; net inflow of FDI is positively related to the trade complementarity of capital-intensive products;infrastructure development has significant influence on the trade complementarity of primary and labor-intensive products; R&D has significant impact on the trade complementarity of the labor-intensive and capital-intensive products.In the end,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions.