东道国制度质量、超主权投资制度与中国对东盟直接投资

The Institutional Quality of Host Country,the Super-sovereign Investment Institutions and China's Foreign Direct Investment to ASEAN Countries

以制度扩展的OLI折衷范式为理论基础,选取2003至2015年中国对东盟国家的对外直接投资面板数据,采用主成分分析法构建衡量东道国制度的综合指标,利用广义最小二乘法(FGLS)和GMM工具变量法,估计了国际投资制度以及东道国制度质量对中国对东盟直接投资预期收益的影响。结果表明:东道国制度质量对中国对东盟直接投资具有显著正影响,其中东道国政府效率、管制质量以及腐败控制的正效应较为明显;双边投资协定对中国对东盟直接投资具有显著负影响,从一定侧面反映出当前双边投资协定的不完善,统一、明确的多边投资协定需要提上日程。

Based on the extended OLI eclectic paradigm,this paper chooses the panel data of foreign direct investment( FDI) of China to ASEAN countries from 2003 to 2015,and constructs a index to measure the comprehensive institutional quality in destination countries by principal component analysis. Feasible generalized least squares( FGLS) and Generalized method of moments( GMM) of Instrument Variables method( IV) were used to test the influence of the international investment institutions and the institutional quality of the destination country on the expected return of China's MNEs. T he results show that the destination country's comprehensive institutional quality has a significant positive impact on China's foreign direct investment to ASEAN,in which the government efficiency,the regulation quality and the corruption control of the destination country has more obvious positive effect on China's OFDI to ASEAN. Furthermore,the results also show that bilateral investment agreements have a significant negative impact on China's direct investment in ASEAN. From a certain perspective,there are many problems in the current bilateral investment agreements. Uniform and clear regional or multilateral investment agreements need to be put on the agenda.