基于空间模型的我国孕产妇死亡率影响因素分析

Analysis on the influencing factors of maternal mortality rate in China based on spatial model

目的分析我国孕产妇死亡率的空间分布特点,利用空间模型进行拟合优度检验,探讨我国孕产妇死亡率的影响因素。方法采用2005-2014年中国统计年鉴及中国卫生和计划生育年鉴面板数据,运用空间面板数据模型,对影响我国孕产妇死亡率的因素进行定量分析。结果空间滞后模型在0.1的检验水准上,孕产妇死亡率、住院分娩率、每千人口床位数、文盲率差异有统计学意义;其他条件不变时,以上因素每增加1%,孕产妇死亡率会相应降低0.386 2/10万、0.391 1/10万、0.423 2/10万和升高0.316 5/10万。结论孕产妇系统管理率、住院分娩率、妇幼保健专业机构的床位数是孕产妇死亡率的保护因素;文盲率是孕产妇死亡率的危险因素。

Objective To analyze spatial distribution characteristics of Chinese maternal mortality, conduct goodness-of-fit test based on spatial model, and explore the influencing factors of maternal mortality rate in China. Methods Based on the data of China Statistical Year- book from 2005-2014 and China Health and Family Planning Yearbook, quantitative analysis of influencing factors of maternal mortality rate in China was performed on spatial panel data model. Results At 0. 1 inspection level of spatial lag model, there were statistically significant differences in maternal mortality rate, hospital delivery rate, the number of inpatient beds per thousand people, and illiteracy rate. When the other conditions unchanged, maternal mortality, hospital delivery rate, the number of inpatient beds per thousand people, and illiteracy rate in- creased by 1%, maternal mortality rates decreased by O. 386 2/100 000, O. 391 1/100 000, O. 423 2/100 000 and increased by O. 316 5/ 100 O00,respectively. Conclusion Maternal system management rate, hospital delivery rate, and the number of beds in maternal and child health care institutions are the protective factors of maternal mortality rate;illiteracy rate is the risk factor of maternal mortality rate.