内蒙古工业化与能源强度关系的交互动态响应分析

Analysis on interactive dynamic responses between Inner Mongolia industrialization and energy intensity relationship

基于内蒙古1995-2015年的统计数据,建立工业化和能源强度间的向量自回归模型(VAR模型),进行协整分析之后,运用脉冲响应函数和动态方差分解法,对工业化和能源强度这两组变量的交互动态响应关系进行分析和预测,从而探索内蒙古工业化与能源利用率的内在联系、长期发展趋势与短期动态变化。结果表明:内蒙古工业化与能源强度之间存在长期均衡关系,通过工业化水平的提高能够有效促进能源的可持续利用,实现能源消费与经济增长间的均衡发展,而提高工业化水平并非一定要大量消耗能源。

Based on the statistic data of Inner Mongolia from 1995 to 2015,a vector auto-regression model（VAR model） between the industrialization and the energy intensity was established. After the coordinative analysis conducted,an impulse response function and the dynamic variance decomposition method was applied to analyze and predict the interactive dynamic response between the industrialization and energy intensity. Thus,the inner link and the long term development intensity of the Inner Mongolia industrialization and the energy utilization rate were discovered. The results showed that there was a long tern equilibrium relationship between the Inner Mongolia industrialization and energy intensity. The improvement of the industrialized level could effectively promote the sustainable utilization of the energy,could realize the balance development between the energy consumption and economic increased and could promote the industrialized level without great energy consumed.