影响广东省的热带气旋特征分析及灾害损失研究

Characteristics Analysis and Assessment of Economic Damages Caused by Tropical Cyclones in Guangdong Province

本文基于1990~2015年影响广东省的热带气旋(Tropical cyclone,TC)数据,分析了影响广东省TC的时空特征、灾情年际变化以及灾害强度特征等。并利用灾害指标核算出灾害损失的经济价值,改进综合灾情指数模型。主要得出以下结论:26年来登陆广东省的TC共93个(占登陆我国TC总数的29.6%),其中有67个对广东省造成了人员伤亡或者经济损失;影响广东省TC频次整体随时间变化不大,强度低的TC频次随年际呈现较为明显地减少变化趋势,而强度高的TC频次呈现较为明显的逐年上升趋势;粤西与珠江三角洲地区受TC侵袭频次明显高于粤东和粤北地区;热带气旋各项灾情指标造成的经济损失(以2015年为可比价)均在1997年出现转折,经济损失急速下滑;各项损失相对值与TC强度之间存在较好的指数正相关关系,低强度等级的热带气旋造成的综合灾情指数呈现较为明显的年际减小趋势,而高强度等级的热带气旋变化趋势不显著。

Using tropical cyclone（TC） data in Guangdong Province from 1990–2015, characteristics and spatial– temporal variations of disasters caused by tropical cyclones are analyzed in this paper. The economic loss is calculated by using the disaster index, and the comprehensive disaster index model is improved. The conclusions are as follows. There are 93 TCs landing in Guangdong Province during 1990–2015, which account for 29.6% of the total landings nationwide, and 67 out of the 93 TCs have caused casualties and economic losses in Guangdong Province. The frequency of TC occurrence has little changes with time, whereas TCs of low-intensity show an obvious decreasing trend and TCs of high-intensity show an obvious increasing trend during the study period. TC occurrence in West Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta area is obviously higher than that in East and North Guangdong.Using the situation in 2015 as a reference to convert the loss index,it is found that the economic losses corresponding to each index all have a turning point in 1997,since when the economic losses have decreased greatly.There is an exponential relationship between the relative loss and TC intensity,which are positively correlated with each other.The low-intensity TCs show an obvious decreasing trend on the interannual scale,while the decreasing trend of high-intensity TCs is not significant.