上市公司财务困境时间效应的实证判别与理论猜想

An Empirical Study and Theoretical Conjecture on the Time Effect of Financial Distress of China's Listed Companies

本文利用面板数据模型和生存分析方法实证判别A股上市公司上市后财务困境随时间变化的一般性规律。实证结果表明:财务困境随着企业上市时间变化呈现倒U型曲线特征,极值通常出现在上市后10年左右,上市公司财务困境存在显著且稳健的时间效应。理论猜想认为:由于上市条件约束,企业上市初期出现财务困境的风险最低,伴随着上市亢奋效应的作用,以及更低的融资成本和更多的投资机会出现,管理层会接受更多之前不可能选择的投资项目,致使企业遭遇财务困境的风险逐渐上升,但管理者出于持续经营意愿以及自身名望的考虑,会在财务困境风险上升到一定程度后努力降低企业陷入财务困境的风险,因此上市公司财务困境呈现具有倒U型曲线特征的时变规律。

Based on analyzing sample of Chinese A-share firms, this paper uses panel data and survival analysis method to identify the general rule of financial distress after firm listing. The empirical results show that the relation between financial distress condition of listed companies and listed time is a robust inverted U-shape curve, with vertex appearing at about 10 years after listing. The financial distress of listed companies has significant and robust time effect. The theory conjectures that for firms in the initial stage of the IPO, listing requirements contribute to the lowest risk of financial distress. As time goes by, managers encountering with more investment opportunities and lower cost of capital tend to invest to projects that should not be taken, re- suiting a higher leverage. This will lead to a gradually increasing risk of financial distress. However, managers will then try to avoid falling into financial distress when the risk of financial distress climbs higher, as they will always consider continuous operation and have reputation concern. Therefore, the financial distress of listed companies presents the time effect with an inverted U-shaped curve.