劳动力迁徙与生产率省际发散——数理分析与实证检验

Labor Migration and Productivity Provincial Divergence:Mathematical Analysis and Empirical Test

针对新时期生产率省际显著发散且不同于研究期初显著收敛、甚至相对稳定的全新演化趋势,本文在劳动力迁徙的框架下从劳动者的迁徙机制、迁徙与生产率的敛散机制两方面对生产率的演化规律进行了分区域与分阶段的数理分析、实证检验。研究结果表明,人口红利与劳动力迁徙改变的劳动要素供给导致了省际生产率的显著收敛、相对趋稳、而后发散的三阶段演化特征;伴随着人口红利窗口期关闭,相较于流入省份生产率持续上涨,流出省份劳动要素供给减少,显著抑制生产率上涨、导致其下滑,进而导致生产率省际发散。在现阶段不平衡、不充分发展矛盾普遍、显著存在的背景下,促进劳动力回流,不仅可以有效延续人口红利,也可以延长生产率省际相对趋稳的经济高速增长时期,进而避免省际技术、经济难以抑制的持续分化与我国整体经济增长放缓。

For the new trend of productivity provincial divergence, under the framework of labor migration, this paper carries out mathematical analysis and empirical test according to different regions and stages on the evolution rule of productivity from two aspects： migration mechanism, migration and productivity convergence mechanism. The results show that demographic dividend and labor supplement variation lead to productivity provincial convergence, then comparative stability and significant divergence in the end; accompanied by demographic dividend window is shut, compared with in- flows province productivity rising, outflow province labor supply significantly inhibit productivity rising and decline, leading to inter-provincial productivity divergence. At present, unbalanced and insufficient development of contradictions are common and significant. Promoting labor return migration could not only continue demographic dividend effectively, but also extend the provincial productivity relative stabilization period of rapid economic growth, thus avoiding technology and economy provincial divergence and overall economic growth slowing down.