农业保险对农村经济的助力效果分析——基于3SLS方法

An Analysis of the Boosting Effect of Agricultural Insurance on Rural Economy Based on 3SLS Method

目前我国城乡差距显著,农村经济发展任务繁重。定量考察农业保险对农村经济的助力效应,对于了解农险在农村经济和农民增收中所扮演的角色十分重要。本文采用联立方程模型,综合考虑政府、金融机构和农险经营机构的影响,构建了封闭的三部门简化凯恩斯宏观经济理论模型。主要采用三阶段最小二乘法进行参数估计,并用2SLS等方法进行稳健性检验,实证分析农险政策助力农村经济发展的效应,得到稳健结果。研究发现,增加政府支出和涉农投资均会提升农业产值和农民消费,农险作用发挥亟待改善。据此提出农险经营机构应改善农险服务,真正发挥农险作用,扩大政府财税扶持,增加涉农投资,加强各部门合作等建议。这必将有助于优化农险政策,更好地助推农村经济发展。

At present, the gap between urban and rural areas is remarkable in China, and the task of rural economic development is arduous. Quantitatively studying the boosting effect of agricultural insurance on rural economy is very important for understanding the role of agricultural insurance in the rural economy and the increase of farmers＇ income. Using the simultaneous equation model and considering the impacts of government, financial institutions and agricultural insurance, the paper constructed the three-sector closed simplified Keynes macroeconomic theoretical model. It mainly adopted the three-stage least squares method to estimate the parameters, and carried out the robust- ness test by using 2SLS and other methods, and the empirical analysis of the effect of agricultural insurance policy on the development of rural economy was affirmative. It is found that increasing government expenditure and investment in agriculture would increase agricultural output and farmers＇ consumption;the role of agricultural insurance needed to be improved. Accordingly, some policy suggestions were put forward that the agricultural insurance agencies should improve their agricultural insurance services and gave full play to the role of agricultural insurance, government＇ s financial and tax supports should be expanded, investment in agriculture should be increased, and the cooperation of all sectors should be strengthened, etc. This will help to optimize the policy of agricultural insurance and better boost the rural economy.