1990—2014年中国煤炭运输网络的时空特征研究

Spatial Characteristics of Coal Transportation Network in China during 1990-2014

煤炭资源在中国能源生产和消费中起到举足轻重的地位,"北富南贫、西多东少"的煤炭资源区域分布特征促成了煤炭运输网络的形成和演化。论文基于1990—2014年中国31个省(市、区,香港、澳门、台湾缺少数据,未包含)的煤炭输出输入矩阵数据,采用社会网络分析方法,分析了中国煤炭运输网络的整体时空演变特征,以及各网络节点在煤炭运输网络中的地位作用。研究结果表明:1)中国煤炭运输网络密度呈现波动状态,经历1990—2000年的快速提升、2000—2010年的先减速后加速与2010—2014年的缓速增长,局部波动原因与煤炭政策变化、煤炭产能过剩、海外进口增多等相关。2)煤炭网络外向中心势显著大于内向中心势,煤炭调出集中控制在少数省区,而煤炭调入具有普遍需求性。3)基于网络凝聚子群分析,中国煤炭运输网络可以分为东北-华北地区、中南地区、东南地区、西南地区和西北地区5个子群,各子群之间的网络联系差异较大。4)基于对31个省(市、区)程度中心性、接近中心性、中间中心性的分析,煤炭运输网络核心节点发生了较大变化,山西的网络控制力有所下滑,内蒙古和陕西影响力近年显著上升甚至超过山西,贵州、河北、湖南、辽宁的控制作用提升成为核心节点,河南、四川、宁夏、山东、江苏、甘肃等核心作用明显跌落。

Coal resource plays an important role in energy production and consumption in China. Based on the input and output matrix of coal in 31 provinces, municipalities or autonomous regions during 1990-2014, this paper uses social network analysis method to analyze the overall temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of coal transportation network and the role of each node and in coal transportation network, and the result shows that： 1） The density of coal transportation network in China fluctuated and experienced quick increase during 1990-2000, increase＇s slowing down and then speeding up during 2000-2010, and slow increase during 2010-2014. The fluctuation of increase was partially related to changes in coal policy, international economic situation, coal prices and shipping costs, the increase of China＇s overseas coal imports in recent years, overcapacity of coal in domestic country, and so on. 2）The outward central potential of coal network was significantly greater than the inward central potential, and the output of coal centralized in a few provinces and autonomous regions while the demand for coal input was universal. 3） Coal transportation network can be divided into five regions based on the cohesive subgroups of the network, which were Northeast and North China, Central South China, Southeast China, Southwest China and Northwest China. The network linkages among subgroups were quite different. Among them, Shanxi Province and Shaanxi Province, two national coal centers, had strong power in external expansion. The Northeast and North China and Southwest China attracted a lot of investment, but they had weaker external influence. Northeast China transported goods to Southwest China and Central South China and then transport to the Southeast China. Central South China had become the important coal supply and transit area for Southeast China. 4） Based on the analysis of degree centrality, closeness centrality and betweenness centrality of the network, the core nodes of the coal transportation network changed greatly. The control force of Shanxi became lower than before, and Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi had exceeded Shanxi in controlling very big area. The influence area of Inner Mongolia extended from Northeast China to Northwest China and Central South China. The influence area of Shaanxi extended from Central South China to Southeast and Southwest China. The controlling force of Hebei and Hunan also rose. Guizhou and Liaoning had the controlling force raised and became core nodes in the network. Xinjiang had become a new place of coal output, but needed more output channels to enhance its role.The controlling power of Henan, Sichuan, Ningxia, Shandong, Jiangsu, Gansu and other provinces declined in different degrees.