基于EKC视角的四川省交通碳排放与行业增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on Relationship between Traffic Carbon Emission and Industry Growth in Sichuan Province Based on EKC Perspective

交通运输行业是社会碳排放流动的源头或发散部门之一,为给四川省交通运输行业节能减排工作提供政策指引,基于该省1995—2014年的终端能源消费统计资料测度其历史交通碳排放情况,对动态的时间序列数据进行平稳和协整计量检验后,运用曲线回归测度其经济强度增长下的交通碳排放环境效应是否存在经典环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说的"倒U型",并通过完全分解模型进一步定量分析影响其人均交通碳排放变动的三大因素。实证结果表明:四川省的交通碳排放在规模效应上具有显著阶段性增长趋势,其人均交通碳排放与人均GDP之间存在"倒U型"EKC曲线,且当前已处于下降拐点后,但远期可能面临向弱"N型"曲线的转变;经济强度对人均交通碳排放变动的贡献值始终为正,源于在绝大部分年度里两者的脱钩状态都为增长连接或增长负脱钩状态,但从2009年开始逐渐被运输强度、排放强度的效应所抵减而趋于短暂良性脱钩;在全球气候峰会召开后,四川省在交通运输行业上较好地履行了国家"碳排放承诺",但也面临一定的减排风险;从因素贡献率来看,未来行业节能减排的工作重点将放在技术性升级上。据此,从优化运输结构、重用优势能源、加强环境管制等层面提出适应当前四川省交通运输发展特点的碳减排工具和政策。

Transport industry is one of the sources or proliferation sectors of social carbon emission. In order to provide guidance for the energy-saving and emission-reduction policies in the transport industry of Sichuan Province,based on the statistics of the end energy consumption and traffic carbon emission there during 1995 to 2014,the dynamic time series data are tested by stationarity and co-integration test,after which the curvilinear regression method is used to verify whether there exists an inverted U relation that corresponds to the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC） hypothesis for its traffic environment effect under economic intensity growth. Furthermore,the complete decomposition model is used to quantitatively analyze the 3 majorfactors affecting the traffic carbon emission per capita. The empirical result indicates that（1） The scale effect of traffic carbon emission in Sichuan Province has a significant phase growth trend. There is an ＂ inverted Ushaped＂ EKC curve between the traffic carbon emission per capita and GDP per capita,and now it exceeds the descent inflection point,but it may face the risk of the transformation to the weak ＂N-shaped ＂curve.（2） Economic intensity always has a positive impact on traffic carbon emission per capita owing to the fact that the decoupled state between them are inter-linking and re-coupling in most years, but it has been gradually reduced by transport and emission intensities from 2009, then tends to be temporally benign decoupling.（3） After the global climate summit,Sichuan Province has fulfilled initially its national carbon emission pledge in the transport industry,but it also faces certain risk of emission reduction.（4） From the factor contribution rate,its energy-saving and emission-reduction will be focused on technical promotion in the future. Based on the above result, carbon emission reduction tools and policies such as optimizing transport structures,using superior energy sources and strengthening environmental controls are proposed so as to adapt to the characteristics of its transport development.