中国农村能源碳排放生态压力研究

Ecological Stress of China's Rural Energy Carbon Emissions

在2006—2013年中国农村10种主要生活能源消费量及社会经济统计数据的基础上,计算了EEF、EFC值,构建STIRPAT模型和改进脱钩指数法,分析了2006—2013年的时间序列下中国农村能源碳排放生态压力。结果显示:(1)煤炭、秸秆、薪柴的年消费量平均分别以1.58%、3.16%和4.26%的速率降低,电力、成品油、液化石油气、煤气、沼气和太阳能的平均分别以25.99%、8.53%、22.78%、4.02%、34.85%、12.82%、9.11%的速率增长;(2)中国农村能源供给超过需求,生活能源消费未对乡村环境形成生态压力;(3)能源利用效率不断提高,单位土地面积和能源碳排放带来的经济价值不断提升;(4)适度降低人口规模、优化人口结构是建设乡村的有效办法;(5)技术是STIRPAT模型中能源碳排放生态压力的唯一抑制因素,对技术进行创新是当前进行乡村建设重要途径。中国能源消费模式还有巨大的提升空间,还应进一步加强政府调控、注重引导居民绿色消费观,使中国乡村建设向可持续发展方向稳步前进。

On the basis of energy consumption and socio-economic statistics of ten main living energy sources in China＇s rural areas from 2006 to 2013, EEF and EFC values were measured, STIRPAT model and improved decoupling index method were built, and the carbon emission stress under different time series in China＇s rural areas during 2006-2013 was analyzed. The results showed that：（1） the average annual consumption of coal, straw and firewood reduced by the rate of 1.58%, 3.16% and 4.26%, respectively, the average annual consumption of electricity, refined oil, liquefied petroleum gas, gas, biogas and solar energyincreased by the rate of 25.99%, 8.53%, 22.78%, 4.02%, 34.85%, 12.82% and 9.11%, respectively;（2） China＇srural energy supply exceeded demand, living energy consumption did not form ecological stress on ruralenvironment;（3） China＇s rural energy efficiency increased continuously, the economic value produced by perunit land and carbon emissions also increased;（4） moderately reducing the size of China＇s rural population andoptimizing the population structure were the effective means of building the rural environment;（5） technicalfactor was the only inhibitory factor of energy carbon emission ecological stress in STIRPAT model, innovationin technology was an important way to build rural environment at present. There was a huge improvement spacein China＇s energy consumption model and we should further strengthen the government regulation, focus onguiding the concept of green consumption among residents, so that China＇s rural construction could progress steadily towards the direction of sustainable development.