不确定性与经济波动

Uncertainty and Large Swings in Activity

本文批判性地讨论了现代宏观经济学经典模型对近几十年世界经济的发展,以及经济危机和大幅经济波动是否有足够的解释力。同时认为,对于研究危机等大幅度的经济波动,不应束缚于现有经济模型,而应发展更多的研究工具,并设计切实可行的经济政策。

This paper critically discusses whether the classical models of modern macroeconomics can explain the development of world economy in recent decades, as well as the economic crisis and the great economic fluctuation. It draws the conclusion that for large economic fluctuations such as crises, we should not be constrained by the existing economic models, and there is a need to develop more research tools and design feasible economic policies.