中国与TPP国家在全球价值链分工中的依赖关系研究——基于贸易增加值视角

A Study on the Dependencies between China and TPP Countries in Global Value Chain Division of Labor——Based on the Perspective of the Added Value of Trade

随着产品内分工形式的不断兴起,全球价值链逐渐成为国际贸易发展的主导因素。利用WTO-OECD发布的Ti VA相关数据,从贸易增加值的视角将中国与TPP成员国在1995—2011年期间的贸易依赖关系分为"上游依赖""下游依赖"和"最终需求依赖"三个层面,并相应构建了"后向关联度""前向关联度"和"出口增加值依存度"三个指标体系加以衡量。研究结果显示:中国目前仍然处于全球价值链的底端,来自国外的增加值部分占总出口的相当比重。具体来看,中国对TPP国家的贸易依赖程度较高,尤其是对美国、日本等发达国家在三个层面都有着很高的依赖程度,但近年来有逐渐下降的趋势;而对墨西哥、智利、澳大利亚等发展中或资源丰裕型国家的依赖程度水平较低,但其之间的依赖关系有不断密切的迹象。

As the work division forms within products continue to rise, the global value chain has gradually be- come the leading factor in the development of international trade. Based on the perspective of the added value of trade, this paper divides the dependencies among division of value chain into three levels： upstream dependence, downstream dependence and final demand dependence. And it also builds three index systems to measure them correspondingly, such as backward linkage, forward linkage and value-added exports dependence. This paper uses the relative data of TIVA published by WTO-OECD to make a positive analysis of the trade dependencies between China and TPP countries from 1995 to 2011. The result shows that China is still at the bottom of the global value chain at present and the added value from abroad has taken a considerable proportion of the general export. Specifically speaking, China has higher trade dependencies on the TPP countries, especially a high degree on the United States, Japan and other developed countries in all three levels. However, in recent years, the trend has gradually declined. Nevertheless, the trade dependencies on Mexico, Chile, Australia and other developing countries or countries which own abundant resources is lower. But the dependence between China and these countries has an indication of getting closer constantly.