乳制品质量链风险建模与仿真研究

Modeling and Simulation on Risk of Dairy Quality Chain

为研究乳制品质量链的质量风险大小及其在质量链中的形成传递过程，首先将FMEA模型与Kano模型相结合，分析出各链节点质量管理控制失效时最能引起消费者不满的关键链节点；其次通过事件树刻画质量风险在关键链节点中传递和逐级扩大的过程，并定量计算质量风险对企业所带来的经济损失值。最后通过实际案例，分析了巴氏杀菌乳中由于大肠杆菌群超标所带来的质量风险传递过程，并利用蒙特卡罗模拟出质量风险发生概率，将质量风险定量化。仿真结果表明：提高巴氏杀菌工艺能力能够降低大肠杆菌带来的质量风险。

To study the quality risk and its formation in dairy quality chain, FMEA model and Kano model are combined to analyze the key node that can influence the dissatisfaction of consumer in quality chain when the quality control fails~ then ETA（Event Tree Analysis）is used to describe the evolution of quality risk in key node of quality chain, and economic losses caused by quality risk are calculated. At last, an example is provided to demonstrate the method which focuses on one of the most hazards for dairy quality chain corresponding to the level of colon bacillus, and quality risk is quantified by the use of Monte-Carlo which simulates the probability of quality risk. The simulation results show that improving the ability of pasteurization can reduce the quality risk caused by colon bacillus.