全球动力煤进出口格局及我国动力煤竞争力分析

Global power coal import and export structure and analysis of China's thermal coal competitiveness

对全球动力煤进出口的总体格局进行了分析,预测未来全球动力煤贸易总量将稳中有升,总体格局产生小幅变化,欧美市场动力煤进口需求减弱,全球动力煤消费重心会进一步向亚太地区集中,特别南亚和东南亚部分国家成为拉动煤炭消费的主力军;通过选取我国动力煤主产地"三西"地区的动力煤离岸成本与印尼、澳大利亚动力煤离岸成本进行对比,分析了我国"三西"地区动力煤在我国东南沿海市场、东北亚市场、东南亚及南亚次大陆等市场的竞争力,认为目前我国动力煤在东南沿海竞争力落后于印尼和澳大利亚,但在东北亚市场,运输费用及时间的节约能够部分弥补成本方面的劣势,未来存在扩大出口收复这一传统市场的可能性。

The overall situation of global thermal coal import and export is analyzed. It is predicted that global thermal coal trade will increase steadily in the future and overall trend will change slightly. The import demand for thermal coal in European and American markets will weaken and global thermal coal consumption will further centralize to Asian-Pacific.In particular,South and Southeast Asia countries have become the main force driving coal consumption. By comparing offshore coal price in Chinese ＂Three West ＂ area with that of Indonesia and Australia, this paper analyzed the competitiveness of thermal coal of China＇ s ＂Three West ＂region in China＇ s southeast coastal markets,Northeast Asia market,Southeast Asia,and South Asian subcontinent. It is believed that China＇s thermal coal lags behind Indonesia and Australia in the southeastern coastal areas. While for northeast Asian,lower transportation cost could compensate for the disadvantages of coal price,therefore,there is the possibility of expanding export and recover this traditional market in future.