日本对俄罗斯直接投资的增长态势研究

Research on the Growth Situation of Japan's Direct Investment in Russia

日本对俄罗斯的直接投资极具复杂性。一方面,日本加大对俄罗斯直接投资符合日俄双方的利益需要;另一方面,受领土问题、政治互信、美日同盟以及俄罗斯营商环境等政治经济因素制约,日本对俄罗斯的直接投资又长期裹足不前。第二届安倍内阁以来,日俄两国在政治领域的互动日趋频繁,甚至在领土争端问题上出现了以经促政的"新思路",加之近年来俄罗斯营商环境的改善,都将在一定程度上促进日本对俄罗斯直接投资的增长。但由于横亘在日俄之间的诸如领土争端、政治互信、美国因素等政治困扰未能得到根本性解决,因此从长期看尚难断言日本对俄罗斯的直接投资能够实现可持续性、飞跃性增长。

Great complexities are involved in Japan＇s direct investment in Russia.On the one hand,an increased Japanese investment in Russia is in line with the interests of the two sides. On the other hand,the steps of Japan in making direct investment in Russia have long been restrained by territorial dispute, a lack of political mutual trust, the Us-Japan alliance, Russia＇s business environment and other political and economic factors. Since the second term of Abe cabinet, Japan and Russia have been interacting ever more frequently in the political field, and in terms of territorial dispute, the two countries have even come up with a ＂new thought＂ to promote political cooperation by strengthening economic ties. Besides, Japan＇s direct investment in Russia has also been boosted, to a certain degree, by the improvement of Russia＇s business environment in recent years. However, it is still difficult to make any long-term prediction about whether Japan＇s direct investment in Russia can increase substantially and sustainablydue to the fact that there is yet any ultimate solution tothe political conundrums that are casting a shadow between the two countries, conundrums including territorial dispute, mutual political distrust and American factors.