中国水稻种植户风险偏好:理论模型与定量测算

Risk Preference of Rice Growers in China: Theoretical Model and Quantitative Measurement

为深入了解中国不同地区水稻种植户风险偏好类型和风险偏好程度,推动粮食生产稳定发展,基于预期效用函数构建理论模型,采用面板数据模型进行回归估计,利用回归结果测算2008—2015年中国23个省市以及分东部、中部、西南、东北4个区域的水稻种植户风险偏好指数。结果表明:中国不同地区水稻种植户都是风险规避者,并且水稻产出越大的地区,农户风险规避程度也越高。因此,对于风险规避的水稻种植户而言,降低产量风险是实现稳粮增收的有效管理手段。由此从加强产量保险推广、增加政府公共品供给、规范农资市场等方面提出了相关建议。

To understand the risk preference type and risk preference level of rice growers in different areas of China, and promote the stable development of grain production, a theoretical model of expected utility function was established and the panel data model was used for estimation. Based on the regression results, the study measured the risk preference indexes of rice growers from 23 provinces and cities of the eastern, central,southwestern and northeastern areas of China during 2008-2015. The results showed that rice farmers indifferent areas of China were risk-averse and the greater the yield of rice, the higher the risk aversion level ofrice growers in the area. Therefore, for the risk-averse rice growers, reducing production risk is an effectivemeans of achieving stable grain growth. The relevant suggestions are provided on strengthening the promotion of yield insurance, increasing government supply of public goods, and regulating agricultural markets.