药品智能包装的模糊灰色故障树分析

Fuzzy Grey Fault Tree of Drug Intelligent Packaging

目的对某款药品智能包装从系统层面进行可靠性分析。方法首先,通过失效分析建立药品智能包装的故障树;其次,利用专家判断知识和模糊数学理论,得到故障树底事件和顶事件的三角形式模糊失效率,以及采用模糊中值法进行底事件模糊重要度计算;最后,运用灰色关联分析求出表征各最小割集与顶事件相关行为关系的灰色关联度。结果定量分析计算显示,药品智能包装模糊失效率为(0.146 59,0.179 69,0.206 91),故障相关性最大的为包装材料本身的功能失效,其次为外界的振动和冲击以及包装尺寸误差等。结论模糊灰色关联故障树同时考虑包装系统的模糊性和灰色性,它可为预防药品智能包装失效、提高智能包装可靠性和安全性提供理论依据。

The work aims to analyze the reliability of some drug intelligent packaging from the system level. Firstly, the fault tree of drug intelligent packaging was established through failure analysis; secondly, the triangular fuzzy failure rate of fault tree bottom events and top events was obtained based on expert judgment knowledge and fuzzy mathematics theory, and the fuzzy importance of the bottom events was calculated in the fuzzy median method; finally, grey relational analysis was used to find the grey relational grade that characterized the relationship between the minimum cut set and the top events. The quantitative calculation showed that the fuzzy failure rate of drug intelligent packaging was（0.146 59, 0.179 69, 0.206 91）, the maximum failure correlation was the function failure of the packaging material itself, followed by the external vibration and impact and the error of package size, etc. Simultaneously considering the fuzziness and grey nature of the packaging system, the fuzzy grey relational fault tree can provide a theoretical basis for preventing the failure of drug intelligent packaging and improving the reliability and safety of intelligent packaging.