基于主成分分析法的我国卫生总费用影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of Total Health Cost in China Based on Principal Component Analysis

目的运用主成分分析方法研究经济社会新常态下我国卫生总费用增长的主要影响因素,为深化医药卫生体制的改革提出新思路和新看法。方法挑选出经济社会新常态大背景下的卫生总费用的影响因素共5大类20个指标,通过主成分分析方法,将20个原始指标变量转化为3个主成分得分的形式。结果经济社会新常态以来,国内生产总值(GDP)、65岁及以上人口比重和第三产业占国内生产总值百分比等指标对我国卫生总费用产生较大影响。结论经济社会新常态下国内生产总值增速放缓、人口老龄化进程加快对卫生总费用增长有较大推动力,新时期的医院高新技术产业的迅猛发展会推动卫生总费用的快速增长。

Objective Through using principal component analysis,to study the main influencing factors of health expenditure growth in China under the new normal of economic society,and to put forward new ideas and new views for deepening the reform of health system. Method 20 indexes of total health expenditure under the background of economic and social new normal were selected,and 20 original index variables were transformed into 3 main component scores by principal component analysis. Result Since the new normal of economic society,the indicators of GDP,the proportion of population aged 65 and above and the percentage of GDP in the third industry have a greater impact on the total health expenditure in China. Conclusion The slowdown of GDP growth and the acceleration of population aging process under the new normal of economic society have a great impetus to the growth of total health expenditure in China. The rapid development of hospital high-tech industry in the new era will lead to the increase of medical cost,which leads to the rapid growth of total health expenditure.