浙江省戊型肝炎发病时空特征多成分分析

Spatial-temporal-multicomponent analysis of the characteristic of the incidence of hepatitis E in Zhejiang Province

目的 探讨浙江省戊型肝炎（戊肝）发病时空分布特征。方法 收集2015年中国疾病预防控制信息系统中传染病报告信息管理系统报告的浙江省戊肝病例数据，使用ArcGIS 10.0软件进行空间自相关分析；使用R软件进行时空多成分分析，通过空间流行、时间自相关、本地风险3种成分研究不同区域戊肝发病时空分布特征。结果 2015年，浙江省报告戊肝病例1 738例，发病率为3.16／10万；戊肝发病有明显的聚集性（P 〈 0.05），西北地区为高发聚集区；空间流行成分影响较大的区域主要位于西北部，包括杭州市大部分县（市／区）和嘉兴市、湖州市的部分区域；时间自相关成分影响较大区域主要为杭州市的主城区、临安市、温岭市；本地风险成分对全省的影响较为一致，相对前两种成分影响也较低。结论 浙江省不同区域戊肝发病时空特征有明显差异，提示影响疫情的危险因素不同，应分别采取有针对性的防控措施。

Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal characteristic of the incidence of hepatitis E （HEV） in Zhejiang Province. Methods Data related to HEV cases in Zhejiang Province in 2015 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in the Information System of Disease Prevention and Control of China. The ArcGIS （10.0） was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation, R software was used to explore the spatial-temporal-multicomponent of the incidence based on the epidemic component, autoregressive component and endemic component. Results There were 1 738 cases identified and the incidence of HEV in Zhejiang Province in 2015 was 3.16/105. There were obvious regional clustering of the cases （P 〈 0.05）, the northwest regional of Zhejiang had higher incidence of aggregation. The impact of the epidemic component was strong in most of the districts of Hangzhou Municipality, parts of Huzhou and Jiaxing Municipality. The impact of autoregressive component was strong in the main urban area of Hangzhou Municipality, Lin＇an and Wenlin. The impact of endemic component was relatively lower and autoregressive component was the same in a whole area. Conclusion The spatial-temporal characteristic of the incidence of HEV in different areas are heterogeneous, it is suggested that the risk factors maybe different and targeted strategies should be taken to control the disease.