港口供需匹配非均衡评价模型及实证

The non-equilibrium evaluation model and empirical research of port supply-demand matching

港口供需匹配是港口发展核心问题之一,在当前我国对外贸易转型升级大背景下,港口供需是否匹配均衡对于提升我国港口运营效率、节约港口资源等具有重要现实意义。本研究在借鉴文献[14]的基础上,利用非均衡分析理论和模型进一步深入评价港口供需匹配情况:一是构建了供给、需求和共性三维度的港口供需匹配评价指标体系,二是建立了改进和优化的港口供需匹配非均衡评价模型。三是采集2006-2013年上海港数据分析,结果表明:上海港2006-2013年期间潜在供给小于潜在需求、处于严重或轻度供给不足状态,但供给需求缺口逐年收窄,较符合上海港实际运营客观现状。

Supply - demand matching is the key problem of port development. In the current context of China＇ s import and ex- port trade upgrading, port supply - demand matching is of practical significance for enhancing port operation efficiency, saving port resources and so on. This study further improved the literature, and made an in - depth analysis of port supply - demand matching with the help of non - equilibrium theory and model frame analysis. Firstly, a scientific port supply - demand matching evaluation index system is constructed from such three dimensions as supply, demand and joint index. Secondly, an improved port supply - demand matching non - equilibrium evaluation model is established. Finally, we conduct an empirical research on Shanghai port in 2006 -2013. The results show that Shanghai port potential supply is less than the potential demand in 2006 - 2013, but the supply - demand gap has been gradually narrowing, which is consistent with the actual situation of Shanghai port operation.