FTA背景下中韩双边出口增长的三元边际特征及前景分析

The Analysis and Prospect of Three Margins of China-Korea Bilateral Export Value Under FTA

文章利用1992~2015年HS-6位产品层面贸易数据,将中韩双边贸易增长分解为广度、数量与价格三个维度,并通过测算三者的贡献率分析双边出口的主要推动力。在此基础上建立模型考察关税对三元边际的影响。结果表明:从三元边际变化来看,样本期间中国对韩出口产品种类丰富,出口数量高速增长,但出口产品质量却有待提升。同期,韩国对我国出口产品质量提升明显,但数量及种类增长相对缓慢。从贡献率来看,双边出口贸易增长均主要源于已有产品出口数量的增长,而非新产品种类的增加或单位产品价格的提升。随着FTA的实施,关税下调将促进韩国出口更趋多样化,但对我国产品出口的多样性水平促进作用不显著。

Based on 6-digit trade data,we decomposed China-Korea bilateral export value into the extensive margin,price margin and quantity margin. Through the measurement of contribution rate,we analyzed the major driving force of the export growth. On that basis,models were set up to inspect the influence of tariff on export diversification. We arrived at the following conclusions: Judging from the changes of three margins,the variety of China's export products got rich,and the quantity grew at high rate during the sample period. However,quality still remained to be improved. Over the same period,the quality of Korea's export products got promoted,whereas the quantity and variety was growing slowly. Judging from the contribution rate,the growing quantity of existed export is the major driving force of bilateral export growth. Along with the implementation of Sino-ROK FTA,tariff concession would diversify Korea's export variety,but it has no significant impact on China's export variety.